* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 77 82 84 85 84 78 72 67 61 56 55 V (KT) LAND 65 72 77 82 84 85 84 78 72 67 61 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 80 85 88 88 86 80 75 70 68 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 8 7 5 7 10 9 10 7 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -6 -5 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 212 245 86 120 130 131 138 120 115 84 80 83 124 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 134 132 129 127 129 129 132 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 58 55 52 46 38 32 27 24 23 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 23 24 25 24 23 24 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 -8 -12 -14 -19 -7 14 28 40 43 45 43 200 MB DIV 43 40 55 52 27 0 1 3 -36 -47 5 -10 14 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1110 1103 1100 1087 1074 1044 1054 1114 1236 1391 1596 1809 2005 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.7 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.2 119.6 119.7 119.9 120.0 120.4 121.2 122.6 124.6 127.1 129.7 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 3 2 3 5 8 10 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 16 17 18 15 14 9 5 4 4 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 41.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 19. 20. 19. 13. 7. 2. -4. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.8 118.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 7.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.30 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 416.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.83 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 9.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 42.8% 42.2% 32.5% 31.5% 30.5% 27.5% 15.4% Logistic: 42.7% 40.8% 43.6% 29.5% 20.4% 19.6% 4.5% Bayesian: 22.3% 15.1% 9.3% 4.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 35.9% 32.7% 28.5% 21.7% 17.4% 16.2% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##