* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 92 95 95 93 84 78 71 65 62 61 58 V (KT) LAND 80 87 92 95 95 93 84 78 71 65 62 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 80 89 94 95 94 89 84 79 75 71 70 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 5 4 7 11 8 2 6 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 253 167 188 221 135 137 102 89 49 52 72 47 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 136 134 131 129 130 131 132 132 134 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 54 55 50 41 34 31 29 25 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 23 23 25 23 23 22 20 21 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -19 -21 -21 -27 -19 -2 14 29 31 30 26 33 200 MB DIV 28 52 58 26 3 -6 -10 -7 -37 2 -11 -17 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1107 1086 1067 1040 1013 1007 1040 1125 1271 1442 1645 1854 2047 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.5 119.7 119.7 119.7 119.9 120.4 121.4 123.1 125.3 127.8 130.3 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 6 9 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 15 13 12 12 7 3 3 6 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 36.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 15. 13. 4. -2. -9. -15. -18. -19. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 119.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 6.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.16 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 526.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.16 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 44.3% 35.1% 26.1% 20.6% 19.6% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 25.4% 20.8% 17.7% 10.6% 5.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 12.5% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 25.5% 22.0% 16.4% 13.1% 10.2% 7.8% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##