* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 105 103 100 90 80 71 62 61 59 53 54 V (KT) LAND 95 102 105 103 100 90 80 71 62 61 59 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 95 103 105 102 97 87 80 74 70 68 67 65 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 9 6 10 4 3 6 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 -6 1 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 255 177 188 224 199 152 130 109 84 85 57 87 71 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 133 130 128 127 129 131 132 132 133 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 55 51 44 37 32 32 29 29 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 24 25 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -20 -26 -21 -6 15 24 30 33 31 36 48 200 MB DIV 42 56 25 5 14 -12 0 -10 -35 -1 -9 -6 -5 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -1 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 1064 1038 1013 994 975 984 1035 1144 1313 1488 1694 1880 2073 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.0 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.4 119.5 119.5 119.5 119.8 120.5 121.7 123.6 125.8 128.4 130.6 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 2 3 4 8 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 11 10 10 10 5 4 2 6 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -24. -28. -32. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 11. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. 0. 1. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 8. 5. -5. -15. -24. -33. -34. -36. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.7 119.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 622.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 38.3% 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 25.1% 6.2% 13.0% 8.4% 4.8% 2.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.6% 11.4% 4.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##