* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 86 82 74 63 59 56 52 51 49 49 V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 86 82 74 63 59 56 52 51 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 88 84 79 69 61 56 52 49 47 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 9 8 5 5 4 6 5 1 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 139 171 170 191 167 176 101 45 42 53 152 18 295 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 127 125 125 129 130 130 131 130 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 51 48 42 34 30 28 27 27 28 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 22 21 21 18 20 21 20 21 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -14 -25 -15 -18 3 17 23 21 11 18 25 32 200 MB DIV 56 37 6 11 16 4 -9 -44 -10 -3 -11 -4 9 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 4 0 6 LAND (KM) 999 975 952 933 915 942 1048 1197 1359 1551 1781 1978 2119 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.2 119.2 119.2 119.2 119.7 120.8 122.4 124.6 127.0 129.6 131.8 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 4 6 9 11 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 3 3 1 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -5. -3. -5. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -4. -8. -16. -27. -31. -34. -38. -39. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.4 119.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 616.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 6.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##