* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 78 74 64 58 51 47 47 44 41 40 V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 78 74 64 58 51 47 47 44 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 90 86 81 75 69 59 51 46 42 40 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 10 11 6 7 4 4 5 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 0 2 1 0 0 4 13 SHEAR DIR 184 196 198 188 177 142 121 48 43 79 195 249 230 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 123 123 124 128 128 131 130 128 126 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 48 43 35 31 27 24 25 26 30 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 21 21 19 19 17 17 18 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -30 -18 -21 -17 6 16 14 14 15 39 44 50 200 MB DIV 31 17 9 13 5 -1 -8 -26 2 -3 10 5 18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 5 2 1 2 11 9 18 LAND (KM) 937 914 892 889 887 956 1096 1263 1473 1700 1919 2065 2158 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.0 19.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.0 119.0 119.1 119.2 120.1 121.5 123.6 126.2 128.8 131.2 132.9 134.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 5 9 11 12 12 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 4 4 4 2 2 1 3 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -16. -26. -32. -39. -43. -43. -46. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.0 118.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 683.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##