* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 75 70 65 57 50 45 42 41 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 85 81 75 70 65 57 50 45 42 41 41 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 75 69 64 56 49 44 39 36 34 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 11 8 5 3 3 5 4 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 2 3 1 2 -2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 200 198 181 185 175 112 98 17 357 268 279 253 240 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 121 121 124 124 125 127 125 124 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 51 47 43 41 34 31 29 28 30 33 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -13 -22 -14 -8 0 3 -2 -2 1 12 17 13 200 MB DIV 18 19 9 -1 3 -12 -27 -5 -4 -13 -3 19 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 2 5 1 3 12 9 13 19 LAND (KM) 876 853 832 837 843 937 1073 1244 1479 1689 1869 2036 2070 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.9 119.0 120.1 121.8 124.0 126.8 129.2 131.3 133.2 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 3 7 9 12 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -15. -20. -28. -35. -40. -43. -44. -44. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 118.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 697.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##