* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 61 58 51 46 42 41 41 40 40 36 V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 61 58 51 46 42 41 41 40 40 36 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 69 64 60 54 49 45 41 38 36 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 7 5 3 7 7 4 4 7 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -2 5 8 SHEAR DIR 212 189 183 173 172 101 25 36 58 201 257 237 235 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 124 125 127 129 129 130 127 125 125 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 4 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 48 44 41 37 30 28 27 27 28 33 35 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -23 -16 -3 4 10 10 0 7 11 30 37 31 200 MB DIV 12 12 -3 -2 -4 -17 -19 0 -10 -6 8 22 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 6 2 0 5 10 11 20 23 LAND (KM) 876 872 869 889 910 1023 1199 1373 1589 1803 2000 2124 1935 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.0 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 118.8 118.8 119.1 119.4 120.8 122.8 125.1 127.8 130.3 132.5 134.5 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -22. -29. -34. -38. -39. -39. -40. -40. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.6 118.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 701.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##