* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 60 56 52 46 42 39 38 37 35 34 31 V (KT) LAND 70 65 60 56 52 46 42 39 38 37 35 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 57 54 48 44 39 35 33 31 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 1 0 7 7 5 3 6 11 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 -1 1 1 1 0 -5 -1 2 8 SHEAR DIR 194 197 201 162 107 3 10 18 313 280 248 247 235 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 124 126 127 127 128 126 126 126 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 39 35 31 29 27 25 26 29 32 34 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 16 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -5 3 7 10 -3 -5 0 4 26 41 41 45 200 MB DIV -7 4 -1 -16 -25 -27 -12 -20 -15 -3 15 36 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 1 5 4 6 7 15 22 25 LAND (KM) 824 849 875 933 993 1160 1335 1535 1745 1958 2134 1934 1769 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.0 119.3 120.0 120.6 122.6 125.0 127.4 129.7 132.1 134.4 136.3 137.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -28. -31. -32. -33. -35. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.2 118.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.01 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 735.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##