* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 63 61 58 50 47 43 44 41 42 35 34 V (KT) LAND 70 67 63 61 58 50 47 43 44 41 42 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 65 62 59 53 48 44 40 38 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 1 4 8 7 4 4 6 11 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 0 3 3 3 -2 -2 2 7 8 SHEAR DIR 223 167 142 146 24 17 11 27 301 243 231 215 228 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 126 128 128 128 129 128 126 126 123 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 40 35 32 30 29 26 27 27 31 32 35 37 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 17 17 14 15 14 15 13 14 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -6 8 11 17 11 -2 0 0 19 29 35 42 36 200 MB DIV 5 -2 -14 -15 -33 -12 -8 -24 -18 6 40 36 11 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 2 3 2 8 4 10 17 25 24 LAND (KM) 863 916 969 1045 1122 1269 1451 1656 1868 2089 1966 1758 1601 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.8 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.6 120.1 121.0 121.8 123.8 126.1 128.6 131.1 133.6 136.0 138.0 139.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -4. -3. -5. -4. -6. -4. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -20. -23. -27. -26. -29. -28. -35. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.1 119.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 760.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##