* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 51 48 42 39 36 34 33 32 29 26 V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 51 48 42 39 36 34 33 32 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 50 48 43 39 36 33 31 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 10 8 8 5 4 6 8 15 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 5 1 0 -4 -4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 186 272 331 351 26 1 13 357 245 243 236 241 242 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 126 125 125 127 127 125 126 125 123 122 118 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 31 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 28 30 32 35 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 0 -10 -14 0 5 18 39 51 64 59 64 200 MB DIV -11 -24 -36 -27 -20 -14 -13 -39 0 29 39 25 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -1 1 1 5 0 0 5 15 19 18 LAND (KM) 928 1012 1090 1154 1221 1429 1635 1830 2052 1999 1726 1529 1387 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.3 20.1 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.7 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.9 121.7 122.7 123.7 126.1 128.5 130.8 133.2 135.7 138.3 140.2 141.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -28. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.4 120.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 703.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 68.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##