* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 53 50 44 40 36 34 36 32 30 26 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 53 50 44 40 36 34 36 32 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 55 52 50 46 42 39 37 36 34 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 7 6 9 5 3 5 9 13 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 2 2 3 4 3 2 -1 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 227 339 360 25 22 360 14 339 257 260 258 263 241 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 126 128 129 129 126 128 122 121 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 28 26 24 23 23 24 24 24 27 31 35 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 12 13 12 12 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -3 -12 -11 -3 2 19 37 50 60 65 66 55 200 MB DIV -22 -28 -25 -21 -5 -19 -23 -17 12 39 24 -7 -3 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 0 3 4 3 -3 -1 8 12 7 10 LAND (KM) 1002 1079 1145 1238 1335 1531 1749 1987 2084 1852 1663 1456 1233 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.6 122.5 123.7 124.8 127.1 129.6 132.3 134.9 137.1 138.9 140.9 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 11 13 12 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 2 2 1 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -20. -24. -26. -24. -28. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 120.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 722.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##