* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 66 64 59 52 45 42 39 36 32 27 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 66 64 59 52 45 42 39 36 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 68 66 61 56 52 49 46 43 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 7 8 5 6 7 9 14 14 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 1 5 2 1 0 -2 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 329 356 33 22 11 358 332 264 245 239 245 233 229 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 128 129 129 127 127 127 123 123 122 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 27 25 25 23 24 24 25 27 30 34 37 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 14 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -11 -14 -4 0 6 27 38 48 59 52 35 41 200 MB DIV -23 -32 -31 -9 -13 -4 -34 -2 26 35 10 4 25 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 1 2 6 2 0 8 13 12 6 11 LAND (KM) 1076 1154 1232 1324 1419 1612 1845 2069 2010 1768 1548 1343 1162 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 125.7 128.0 130.7 133.2 135.6 137.9 140.0 142.0 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -18. -25. -28. -31. -34. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.1 121.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 821.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##