* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 60 58 51 44 40 37 33 29 24 19 V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 60 58 51 44 40 37 33 29 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 63 61 59 54 49 46 44 41 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 8 9 6 6 8 12 17 19 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 3 3 5 3 1 -1 -3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 355 16 23 353 342 336 308 271 250 241 246 246 244 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 129 129 129 128 127 129 124 122 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 24 25 23 23 24 23 24 25 30 34 39 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 13 12 13 13 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -4 4 7 15 33 44 51 59 49 51 26 200 MB DIV -27 -14 -11 -25 -10 -22 -28 12 28 26 16 -21 9 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 1 2 5 -1 -3 8 14 12 9 10 LAND (KM) 1162 1243 1328 1423 1522 1723 1933 2147 1863 1632 1465 1311 1171 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.5 124.5 125.7 126.9 129.3 131.7 134.3 137.0 139.2 140.8 142.3 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 2 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -21. -25. -28. -32. -36. -41. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.9 122.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 756.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##