* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 45 41 38 34 31 31 31 31 28 24 22 V (KT) LAND 55 49 45 41 38 34 31 31 31 31 28 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 46 43 40 36 34 32 31 30 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 4 8 10 10 13 16 21 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 5 7 3 2 1 -1 -2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 14 13 348 353 288 303 270 258 244 255 264 251 240 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 130 130 128 127 128 125 127 126 124 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 24 22 24 22 23 23 23 25 30 33 35 36 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 0 -2 4 19 33 46 51 45 21 16 17 200 MB DIV -17 -13 -16 -18 -17 -42 -7 25 32 7 1 -3 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 3 6 0 -1 0 7 3 3 4 6 LAND (KM) 1218 1313 1411 1509 1611 1831 2056 2022 1771 1529 1319 1141 992 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.7 127.9 130.4 133.0 135.5 137.9 140.2 142.2 143.9 145.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 1 4 1 1 1 4 1 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -24. -24. -24. -27. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 123.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 630.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.27 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##