* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 29 27 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 29 27 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 38 34 31 28 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 8 13 13 15 19 22 27 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 7 6 0 2 -1 -3 -5 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 18 344 336 322 309 301 281 268 260 256 262 254 244 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 128 127 127 128 124 124 125 122 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 21 22 21 21 22 21 22 24 28 32 32 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 2 0 11 25 32 30 32 28 39 25 28 200 MB DIV -19 -22 -18 -17 -23 -35 -5 20 17 26 -3 13 5 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 1 -5 -1 5 6 2 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 1304 1393 1485 1587 1693 1928 2146 1884 1622 1412 1237 1084 939 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.7 20.0 20.6 20.8 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.6 126.7 127.9 129.1 131.7 134.3 136.8 139.3 141.3 143.0 144.5 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -18. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -35. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.9 124.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 524.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 57.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##