* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 26 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 26 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 24 22 21 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 7 11 16 15 17 24 29 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 330 320 305 282 286 286 256 256 255 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.6 25.7 25.5 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 125 125 124 124 119 120 118 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 23 23 23 22 21 20 23 24 31 32 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 1 4 8 19 30 39 31 34 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -27 -23 -36 -41 -16 15 8 11 -12 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 -1 -1 -1 7 10 8 6 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1437 1519 1603 1702 1803 2027 2029 1799 1582 1418 1301 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.9 23.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.2 128.2 129.4 130.5 133.1 135.4 137.6 139.7 141.4 142.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 10 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -28. -34. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 126.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.98 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 398.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##