* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162017 09/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 26 34 42 49 52 54 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 10 8 12 15 16 17 16 21 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 0 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 360 338 318 332 337 19 60 85 82 89 92 105 107 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 162 164 164 163 160 160 161 163 163 162 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 10 8 7 10 7 12 8 14 9 15 10 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 57 59 62 62 62 63 61 61 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 8 15 -8 -19 -2 0 -7 -7 -7 3 5 200 MB DIV 89 97 98 97 88 53 23 37 42 26 8 27 10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 167 106 54 7 -32 -80 -80 -114 -157 -155 -224 -265 -212 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.5 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 101.7 101.3 100.7 99.8 98.0 96.6 96.2 96.5 97.3 98.5 99.9 101.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 9 8 4 2 5 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 6 49 55 49 47 48 22 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 9. 17. 24. 27. 29. 29. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 101.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162017 SIXTEEN 09/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 7.8% 13.5% 33.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.8% 6.4% 0.5% 0.2% 2.6% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162017 SIXTEEN 09/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##