* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172016 09/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 55 50 42 30 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 55 50 42 30 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 41 44 43 38 33 28 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 8 12 19 23 25 29 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -5 -4 -2 -6 -4 -5 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 72 95 129 150 190 205 240 237 245 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.2 24.4 23.1 22.0 20.8 19.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 146 139 127 107 93 81 68 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 2 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 70 67 61 53 48 45 42 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 28 34 33 19 33 12 -4 -18 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 45 29 37 48 33 17 4 0 13 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 2 0 8 8 11 2 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 581 636 589 567 584 564 571 482 394 348 287 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 12 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -12. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 20. 12. 0. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 109.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 SEVENTEEN 09/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 29.1% 19.4% 12.6% 0.0% 13.2% 11.6% Logistic: 11.8% 29.7% 20.8% 14.9% 8.9% 12.7% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% Consensus: 7.8% 23.6% 14.7% 9.5% 3.1% 8.9% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 SEVENTEEN 09/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##