* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 52 55 53 48 38 30 22 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 52 55 53 48 38 30 22 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 47 50 50 47 41 35 30 27 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 7 7 13 20 19 22 23 23 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 -5 -4 -6 -3 -1 -7 4 SHEAR DIR 54 68 122 149 185 202 214 232 252 248 253 255 267 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.1 25.7 24.1 22.9 21.9 21.3 21.2 20.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 147 142 136 121 104 90 79 71 70 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 68 64 57 47 42 35 31 30 24 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 13 11 9 6 4 3 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 30 28 27 20 21 14 -16 -6 -11 17 40 200 MB DIV 53 31 42 42 42 8 -2 2 -3 3 6 -8 3 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 1 0 0 13 10 8 -2 -10 -23 -17 LAND (KM) 610 605 583 583 601 575 551 447 359 314 294 191 30 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.1 21.8 23.7 25.5 26.9 27.7 27.8 28.6 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.6 112.9 114.1 115.2 116.9 118.2 118.7 118.5 118.2 118.0 117.2 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 11 10 8 6 3 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -11. -12. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 18. 13. 3. -5. -13. -17. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 110.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.68 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 26.3% 18.6% 13.1% 10.9% 12.2% 10.6% Logistic: 19.0% 24.9% 27.1% 13.6% 7.5% 11.8% 3.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 10.4% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 10.6% 20.5% 16.2% 9.2% 6.2% 8.1% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##