* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 50 46 38 36 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 50 46 38 36 34 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 41 38 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 6 7 10 13 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 92 132 181 204 220 239 244 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 25.4 24.0 22.6 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 145 139 133 117 102 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 68 66 58 51 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 31 26 21 4 25 7 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 45 58 52 36 11 7 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 6 1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 638 581 557 549 542 495 433 310 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.6 22.4 24.3 26.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.1 115.0 116.4 117.2 117.4 117.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 12 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 15. 11. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 110.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 22.3% 16.3% 11.5% 9.1% 11.3% 10.0% Logistic: 4.7% 11.1% 7.5% 3.3% 1.4% 3.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 11.8% 8.1% 5.0% 3.5% 4.8% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##