* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 60 63 65 62 56 45 32 27 23 20 18 V (KT) LAND 50 56 60 63 65 62 56 45 32 27 23 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 64 64 58 48 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 9 14 18 17 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 0 -2 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 139 202 210 214 237 233 252 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.8 24.0 22.6 21.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 138 132 123 103 87 74 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 66 64 54 48 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 16 14 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 27 19 27 43 26 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 64 55 35 33 10 23 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 5 16 12 10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 588 563 570 531 504 457 326 258 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.9 22.0 24.1 26.0 27.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.4 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.3 117.6 117.6 117.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 10 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 12. 6. -5. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 112.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.36 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 29.8% 22.0% 15.9% 13.9% 14.4% 10.6% Logistic: 18.3% 14.6% 14.8% 9.8% 5.0% 2.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 6.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.8% 15.5% 12.6% 8.6% 6.3% 5.6% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##