* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 69 65 56 42 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 69 65 56 42 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 67 66 57 47 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 9 9 12 14 20 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 2 0 1 3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 206 212 220 221 245 223 252 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.8 24.8 23.4 21.9 20.9 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 132 122 111 96 80 69 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 62 57 51 45 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 20 19 15 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 29 25 31 31 33 8 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 53 34 36 1 14 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 5 7 6 -4 -12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 558 549 516 481 485 392 248 212 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.1 25.0 26.9 28.4 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.4 117.3 117.3 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. -1. -5. -12. -19. -19. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 14. 10. 1. -13. -30. -35. -39. -42. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.0 113.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.33 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 34.5% 23.9% 16.6% 15.6% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 39.4% 22.6% 32.6% 21.1% 14.5% 6.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 14.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 24.7% 19.5% 19.0% 12.7% 10.1% 7.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##