* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 65 64 55 43 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 65 64 55 43 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 62 58 47 37 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 13 17 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 1 2 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 201 197 193 224 212 244 257 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.7 25.9 24.9 24.1 22.7 21.5 20.8 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 123 113 104 88 75 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 62 58 53 50 44 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 22 21 18 13 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 30 30 33 22 -5 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 41 47 20 15 10 -2 -4 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 5 10 -2 -4 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 540 504 473 450 425 289 185 150 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.9 27.3 28.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.0 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.0 116.8 116.5 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -24. -23. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 5. 4. -5. -17. -33. -44. -48. -51. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.0 114.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.21 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 296.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 25.9% 19.7% 14.1% 13.1% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 1.9% 3.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 9.3% 7.6% 5.4% 4.7% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##