* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 45 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 45 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 46 38 32 28 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 22 26 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 216 215 217 238 253 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 22.5 21.6 21.0 20.5 20.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 87 78 71 65 59 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 48 45 42 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 15 12 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 11 3 -2 -8 -2 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 9 5 7 0 0 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 0 -11 -10 -19 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 416 330 243 178 150 53 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.3 26.4 27.3 28.1 29.2 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.8 116.9 116.9 116.7 116.5 115.9 115.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -21. -21. -21. -19. -18. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -14. -20. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. 0. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -8. -16. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -29. -39. -54. -61. -66. -70. -73. -76. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.2 116.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 373.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/20/16 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING