* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 66 75 81 82 77 69 54 42 41 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 66 75 81 82 77 69 49 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 57 62 72 81 84 82 73 58 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 8 9 5 9 11 11 11 12 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 0 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 63 91 76 74 84 116 120 139 130 150 167 206 240 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.2 28.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 151 151 151 149 145 139 134 134 143 163 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 57 58 59 56 47 43 38 38 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 21 24 25 26 25 22 19 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 8 6 5 18 38 46 29 20 20 35 -2 200 MB DIV 89 95 96 73 64 62 53 10 -12 11 21 11 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -3 -2 -7 0 4 LAND (KM) 500 484 468 456 443 417 395 279 134 46 -3 14 63 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.2 109.3 109.7 110.2 110.6 110.9 110.7 110.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 2 5 6 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 18 8 9 1 16 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 45.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 4. -6. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 26. 35. 41. 42. 37. 29. 14. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 109.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 2.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.7% 40.2% 24.5% 20.7% 18.2% 32.2% 35.2% 12.3% Logistic: 13.1% 31.3% 27.7% 19.7% 15.0% 42.8% 36.3% 19.1% Bayesian: 3.5% 25.1% 7.0% 2.5% 0.8% 3.8% 2.3% 3.4% Consensus: 12.4% 32.2% 19.8% 14.3% 11.3% 26.2% 24.6% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##