* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 60 67 70 69 63 57 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 60 67 70 69 63 49 39 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 56 63 67 67 64 50 47 44 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 6 8 10 15 16 16 8 14 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 -5 -5 4 9 7 6 SHEAR DIR 81 110 72 92 134 117 142 141 148 195 211 248 250 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.7 28.8 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 149 146 144 139 137 140 151 167 166 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 10 7 10 7 8 5 8 5 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 57 60 59 51 46 43 39 37 31 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 23 23 24 24 22 19 16 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 3 6 16 37 38 28 28 33 42 45 32 200 MB DIV 84 68 62 49 62 29 12 -6 17 29 9 -12 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 -3 -7 10 8 LAND (KM) 462 440 421 409 399 359 279 155 31 -11 50 32 -135 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.4 26.6 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.5 109.7 110.0 110.3 110.5 110.5 110.0 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 3 3 5 6 7 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 20 20 20 18 9 10 7 32 16 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 25.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. -3. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 30. 29. 23. 17. 2. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 109.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 229.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 36.8% 24.4% 20.5% 18.3% 25.7% 20.8% 11.0% Logistic: 15.4% 28.3% 26.1% 23.6% 19.4% 30.1% 20.5% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 11.9% 23.4% 17.1% 14.8% 12.6% 18.7% 13.9% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##