* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 68 68 71 69 64 57 52 44 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 68 68 71 69 53 49 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 57 63 66 67 64 50 50 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 7 9 10 9 10 13 17 21 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -2 -2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 130 46 115 160 181 152 159 152 175 221 215 243 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.5 28.9 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 146 144 140 136 133 138 152 168 164 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 59 56 56 50 47 44 45 45 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 21 21 25 23 25 23 21 16 13 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 3 18 33 42 42 22 29 20 48 4 31 200 MB DIV 56 50 42 44 49 28 13 -13 -15 -2 14 11 21 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 2 3 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 459 445 424 396 369 300 177 78 36 -5 37 -17 -186 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.2 21.3 22.3 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.1 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.8 110.0 110.4 110.8 110.9 110.7 109.9 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 3 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 19 17 10 8 6 2 34 39 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 7. 10. 7. 4. -2. -6. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 23. 23. 26. 24. 19. 12. 7. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 109.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 33.5% 24.2% 20.5% 17.9% 25.8% 21.1% 10.9% Logistic: 13.9% 22.4% 19.9% 18.9% 15.5% 9.8% 5.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 21.0% 15.2% 13.3% 11.2% 12.2% 8.9% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##