* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 75 82 80 80 74 66 57 45 42 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 75 82 80 80 74 66 57 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 71 75 80 80 77 70 62 52 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 2 5 7 7 4 8 4 10 9 14 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 -1 3 1 8 5 4 SHEAR DIR 75 103 178 172 178 179 192 180 209 183 213 254 277 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.3 27.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 147 145 142 140 134 126 123 123 141 167 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 10 7 9 5 7 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 59 58 53 49 42 40 38 35 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 23 25 23 23 20 17 13 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -1 8 20 27 35 30 6 27 7 14 13 39 200 MB DIV 48 41 39 44 27 33 -17 -23 -15 0 4 0 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 10 LAND (KM) 454 457 444 411 377 311 247 151 109 60 27 -10 21 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.1 24.4 25.4 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.4 111.0 111.6 111.9 111.8 111.1 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 7 6 3 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 15 15 16 12 8 6 1 0 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 27. 25. 25. 19. 11. 2. -10. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 109.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 10.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 317.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 3.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.6% 51.7% 39.9% 31.1% 21.3% 37.4% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 41.6% 42.9% 36.0% 35.1% 25.8% 38.9% 10.7% 2.0% Bayesian: 14.1% 50.2% 21.6% 11.5% 4.6% 7.5% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 27.4% 48.3% 32.5% 25.9% 17.2% 27.9% 10.6% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##