* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 73 77 79 78 72 68 58 51 40 37 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 73 77 79 78 72 68 58 51 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 74 76 78 76 71 63 55 45 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 4 7 6 8 11 6 11 10 20 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 3 5 7 7 0 SHEAR DIR 70 177 174 174 153 153 145 172 176 209 220 259 281 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.2 26.0 26.3 27.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 145 144 141 136 130 123 120 124 142 167 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 58 56 49 45 38 38 35 33 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 25 27 26 25 22 21 17 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 18 22 28 39 26 22 23 12 9 20 14 200 MB DIV 36 45 47 33 45 1 -8 0 -8 4 15 -4 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 3 0 1 -2 0 3 LAND (KM) 455 444 433 406 379 291 191 142 122 53 1 -16 -7 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.3 24.7 25.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.3 110.3 110.4 110.7 111.3 112.1 112.3 112.0 111.2 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 3 5 6 6 5 3 4 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 13 13 14 9 8 2 0 0 17 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 4. -1. -1. -7. -11. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 18. 12. 8. -2. -9. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.8 110.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 5.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 361.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 2.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.2% 40.5% 33.2% 27.8% 20.6% 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 18.9% 15.5% 14.5% 10.7% 22.1% 4.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.5% 21.3% 6.9% 3.5% 1.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 16.2% 26.9% 18.5% 15.3% 10.9% 16.8% 1.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##