* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 72 75 75 73 66 60 53 46 38 34 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 72 75 75 73 66 60 53 41 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 68 69 69 66 60 53 46 36 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 6 7 4 13 4 9 13 11 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 0 -1 3 -3 5 3 7 10 9 8 SHEAR DIR 180 153 163 164 176 166 129 180 173 232 241 287 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.7 27.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 145 143 137 132 127 122 120 128 138 151 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 9 5 7 5 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 55 53 46 42 38 35 33 32 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 26 26 27 25 24 20 18 16 11 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 2 10 13 25 29 24 16 23 13 14 7 20 25 200 MB DIV 48 57 47 52 45 -6 6 1 -2 0 10 -2 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 444 434 423 380 337 226 181 155 106 21 -39 -20 41 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.5 19.9 21.0 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.6 25.0 25.5 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.3 110.3 110.4 110.5 110.8 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.3 111.7 111.2 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 9 10 7 5 4 0 0 0 15 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 15. 13. 6. -0. -7. -14. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 110.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 -2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 389.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.8% 48.5% 35.1% 27.3% 21.2% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.9% 24.4% 20.0% 19.0% 17.2% 14.0% 1.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 8.0% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 27.0% 19.4% 15.8% 12.9% 13.2% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##