* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 69 69 70 67 64 59 57 53 47 45 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 69 69 70 67 64 59 57 53 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 67 67 65 60 54 48 44 41 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 7 3 5 5 9 5 2 9 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 3 3 4 6 9 7 4 8 SHEAR DIR 170 157 191 197 215 186 194 200 249 334 327 1 335 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 143 140 134 128 124 122 118 117 117 120 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 9 6 8 6 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 49 50 45 41 39 35 32 33 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 21 24 23 23 21 20 16 15 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 16 22 30 27 17 19 4 13 -2 10 10 36 200 MB DIV 39 42 33 17 0 -11 -20 -16 -16 -2 -8 -36 -29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 422 389 355 306 258 153 136 139 159 139 122 83 46 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.2 110.4 110.9 111.3 111.8 112.4 112.7 112.8 112.6 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 13 11 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -7. -9. -9. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 2. -1. -6. -8. -12. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.1 110.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 449.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 25.0% 20.8% 17.8% 16.3% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 9.7% 7.5% 6.4% 5.7% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##