* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 60 60 57 57 55 53 52 47 42 38 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 60 60 57 57 55 53 52 47 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 58 56 53 49 45 41 38 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 9 7 8 6 9 6 8 15 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 4 3 7 4 9 5 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 185 184 207 224 204 199 234 235 283 289 319 310 293 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 139 134 129 124 120 115 113 111 111 114 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 48 48 42 40 36 36 32 34 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 23 24 21 21 19 17 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 29 22 23 21 15 15 8 7 17 31 29 200 MB DIV 39 29 16 7 13 -12 -18 -17 -7 7 -13 -33 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -5 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 378 329 280 221 171 133 131 133 131 127 101 83 50 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.2 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.2 111.9 112.5 113.0 113.2 113.2 113.1 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 8 7 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -0. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -18. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.5 110.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 435.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 20.3% 16.6% 14.0% 12.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.0% 5.7% 4.7% 4.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##