* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 42 41 39 38 36 31 26 24 23 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 42 41 39 38 36 31 26 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 37 34 32 29 26 23 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 6 8 4 9 11 12 15 6 9 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 4 5 7 3 4 1 2 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 221 243 243 210 224 243 239 309 335 347 302 253 235 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 136 134 131 126 124 122 120 118 115 113 114 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 46 44 42 40 41 41 41 40 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 20 18 15 14 11 10 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 22 18 16 2 12 0 0 -1 20 16 54 200 MB DIV 4 -4 10 1 -11 -15 -12 -16 -15 -20 -28 -18 -7 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 2 5 1 2 -1 0 -4 -3 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 290 243 198 171 158 194 199 213 219 195 167 119 61 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.5 110.6 110.9 111.2 111.9 112.3 112.6 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.2 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 7 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -14. -19. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.3 110.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 360.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.7% 12.2% 11.5% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.4% 4.2% 3.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##