* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 36 35 33 31 27 24 21 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 36 35 33 31 27 24 21 19 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 33 32 29 26 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 10 6 9 12 9 11 1 5 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 6 7 3 6 2 3 1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 252 271 253 260 264 233 313 336 349 158 240 196 218 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 132 129 128 123 118 114 111 109 107 108 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 7 5 6 4 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 44 44 38 34 30 29 28 29 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 14 12 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 13 8 4 5 7 -7 2 10 19 23 49 200 MB DIV -12 -7 -14 -4 -5 -27 -27 -21 -24 -30 -20 -6 -1 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 6 1 1 -2 -3 -3 -8 -6 -21 -18 LAND (KM) 247 216 190 189 198 253 275 281 292 278 236 207 170 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.2 111.6 112.5 113.3 114.0 114.4 114.5 114.3 114.1 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 110.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 320.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 12.0% 9.8% 9.4% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.1% 3.3% 3.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##