* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 43 41 37 31 26 23 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 43 41 37 31 26 23 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 38 34 29 25 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 10 10 7 7 11 7 4 10 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 4 3 3 7 3 5 1 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 286 288 279 296 306 294 335 2 25 172 171 194 202 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 131 130 127 124 121 115 111 108 108 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 40 36 32 31 30 28 28 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 9 2 0 0 -2 -1 1 12 17 31 40 200 MB DIV -8 -22 -20 -24 -33 -23 -18 -26 -13 -28 -2 -3 17 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 1 3 1 0 -2 -5 -5 -18 -15 -23 LAND (KM) 230 222 220 242 270 312 332 329 314 303 274 245 202 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.2 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.6 114.8 114.6 114.4 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -22. -25. -29. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.0 110.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 382.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 16.8% 13.5% 10.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.0% 4.7% 3.6% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##