* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 40 36 31 25 21 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 40 36 31 25 21 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 35 30 26 23 22 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 4 1 3 7 4 4 11 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 2 2 3 6 1 5 0 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 316 326 328 306 310 341 357 236 182 199 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 129 128 124 118 112 108 103 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 37 34 33 31 30 28 27 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 4 0 -7 0 -6 7 7 19 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -25 -29 -34 -9 -6 -24 -16 -30 1 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -20 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 242 268 299 333 357 351 352 352 342 308 236 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.1 112.5 113.0 113.4 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.5 115.3 114.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -20. -24. -25. -31. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 111.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 433.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 19.4% 16.4% 13.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.7% 5.6% 4.4% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##