* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 25 20 16 17 19 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 25 20 16 17 19 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 25 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 10 9 5 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 257 292 268 284 323 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 123 122 118 113 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 33 32 30 27 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -6 -1 -8 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -15 -16 -23 -32 -23 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 365 388 411 430 458 486 471 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.7 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.0 114.5 115.1 115.7 116.5 116.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.6 113.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 385.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##