* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 07/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 63 70 72 74 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 63 70 72 74 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 48 54 61 68 75 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 14 13 15 11 10 6 3 5 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 32 53 58 68 79 75 74 51 40 156 149 133 117 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 159 156 156 157 157 157 155 154 153 150 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 81 79 80 79 79 76 73 72 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 7 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 3 0 -4 -1 8 29 40 50 54 69 68 200 MB DIV 78 85 69 61 43 34 36 57 73 68 45 67 57 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 1 0 3 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 640 646 664 685 714 780 891 1019 1134 1235 1288 1363 1439 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.3 12.8 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.7 106.4 107.1 107.7 108.7 109.8 110.8 112.2 113.7 115.8 117.9 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 9 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 58 68 55 40 26 25 29 24 18 27 42 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 31. 38. 45. 47. 49. 50. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 104.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 07/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.68 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 14.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.2% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 4.9% 8.0% 1.6% 0.7% 7.9% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 18.7% 6.7% 1.3% 0.1% 1.5% 9.6% Consensus: 0.8% 17.6% 12.1% 1.0% 0.3% 3.1% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 07/10/16 18 UTC ##