* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 07/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 52 63 72 77 78 80 82 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 52 63 72 77 78 80 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 56 64 69 74 78 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 9 7 9 3 6 7 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 0 0 -2 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 75 68 71 70 63 57 41 42 57 38 107 163 194 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.4 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 157 155 153 153 155 153 149 143 138 128 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 81 80 80 75 71 67 70 68 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 13 14 16 16 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 0 0 2 2 28 37 52 53 65 73 67 200 MB DIV 90 71 48 39 47 40 47 41 50 26 54 26 37 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 2 3 -2 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 560 557 564 560 560 580 669 798 876 945 1067 1146 1184 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 5 6 8 8 8 8 11 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 44 54 52 43 26 32 29 15 10 14 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 10. 12. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 27. 38. 47. 52. 53. 55. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 104.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 07/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.59 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.91 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 36.7% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 37.7% 29.1% 19.4% 13.9% 30.5% 33.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 30.5% 20.3% 8.5% 3.4% 21.2% 10.5% Consensus: 5.3% 35.0% 24.2% 9.3% 5.8% 17.2% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 07/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##