* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 07/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 48 56 68 72 78 79 78 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 48 56 68 72 78 79 78 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 44 50 56 63 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 7 10 8 4 10 9 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 1 0 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 65 68 64 52 62 44 66 70 66 92 69 74 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.2 27.3 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 154 151 150 155 155 149 146 147 137 130 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 80 79 78 74 71 68 70 68 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 13 13 19 18 22 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 5 9 6 21 39 54 65 75 109 115 116 200 MB DIV 76 61 44 54 52 58 57 59 64 57 44 33 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -2 4 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 538 516 499 501 497 598 778 901 1032 1174 1308 1353 1369 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 9 11 11 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 44 38 29 27 30 13 12 37 27 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 14. 13. 17. 18. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 23. 31. 43. 47. 53. 54. 53. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 104.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 07/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.51 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 9.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.8% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 7.5% 8.6% 1.7% 0.9% 12.4% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 27.9% 13.0% 4.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 1.3% 21.8% 14.1% 2.2% 0.7% 4.2% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 07/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##