* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 07/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 38 48 60 71 76 80 81 81 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 38 48 60 71 76 80 81 81 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 39 45 51 57 62 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 13 10 6 11 8 8 10 10 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 70 58 55 64 57 58 77 51 65 68 68 64 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.7 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 152 152 152 155 149 141 144 139 133 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 77 79 74 73 68 69 67 67 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 11 13 16 19 20 23 24 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 12 2 6 27 39 63 75 102 108 117 106 200 MB DIV 57 36 43 49 45 62 63 72 37 46 15 9 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 2 2 -3 0 -3 0 -6 LAND (KM) 485 468 461 481 514 683 878 992 1112 1228 1296 1359 1443 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 39 31 27 37 20 10 21 26 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 23. 35. 46. 51. 55. 56. 56. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 105.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 07/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.75 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.8% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 13.0% 8.1% 2.8% 1.3% 10.9% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 18.2% 6.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.9% 3.2% Consensus: 1.3% 18.7% 10.5% 1.5% 0.6% 3.9% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 07/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##