* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 54 59 62 62 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 48 54 59 62 62 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 44 49 52 52 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 19 23 18 12 15 11 13 14 12 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -6 -7 0 -5 -1 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 77 65 63 76 87 65 82 90 75 81 73 95 98 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 157 157 158 158 156 147 142 138 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 77 75 75 74 74 71 68 66 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 8 5 1 -7 -3 1 10 0 3 9 5 200 MB DIV 50 56 66 70 71 70 71 75 45 21 -1 11 1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 -6 -4 -6 -5 -6 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 700 680 667 641 630 632 713 738 790 906 1001 1106 1244 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 15.0 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.8 106.1 106.5 107.1 108.8 110.8 112.8 114.8 116.7 118.4 119.9 121.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 9 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 30 38 45 22 27 31 16 9 10 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 864 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 29. 34. 37. 37. 34. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 105.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##