* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 41 48 53 56 55 53 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 41 48 53 56 55 53 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 43 45 46 45 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 22 18 13 16 13 13 13 12 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -7 -5 -4 -3 -1 -6 -3 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 71 65 73 77 79 64 82 72 67 74 89 82 110 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.8 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 157 157 158 158 152 142 137 133 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 75 75 74 73 71 69 63 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 5 5 -5 -12 -4 0 -3 -3 2 -10 4 200 MB DIV 56 63 73 71 73 59 84 61 27 0 -5 -13 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 -5 -4 -5 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 706 694 685 679 668 708 746 736 759 810 856 960 1097 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.3 16.4 17.2 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.6 107.1 107.7 108.4 110.1 111.8 113.6 115.2 116.6 117.9 119.3 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 41 42 30 23 35 25 12 8 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 23. 28. 31. 30. 28. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 106.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 3.5% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.6% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 1.8% Consensus: 0.4% 12.0% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##