* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 48 53 56 57 56 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 48 53 56 57 56 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 43 45 47 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 12 12 11 13 15 18 14 10 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -6 -3 -7 -2 -6 -7 -4 -6 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 70 67 74 79 73 87 64 66 63 67 71 46 62 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 158 157 154 150 145 140 136 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 73 73 72 73 73 74 73 68 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 10 5 1 -5 -11 -5 -12 -6 -12 1 -9 200 MB DIV 63 56 49 55 59 76 90 46 34 25 17 4 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -5 -6 -2 -7 -4 -7 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 669 664 653 661 692 789 806 819 825 813 807 818 826 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.6 108.3 109.1 109.9 111.8 113.2 114.4 115.2 115.8 116.2 116.9 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 31 22 22 36 33 22 15 10 9 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 31. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 107.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.04 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 9.2% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##