* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 36 41 46 49 49 49 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 36 41 46 49 49 49 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 34 36 37 38 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 13 12 9 11 12 13 11 10 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -2 -3 -5 -3 -6 -6 -5 -7 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 68 70 74 74 80 91 75 76 77 79 76 81 84 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 156 151 143 139 138 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 75 75 73 73 71 70 67 65 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 2 1 -2 -11 -13 -18 -25 -24 -21 1 -6 200 MB DIV 53 39 46 51 54 78 62 33 10 8 -9 4 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 -5 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 613 586 572 583 625 650 677 732 790 838 883 919 969 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.1 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.6 108.3 109.1 110.0 111.8 113.4 114.7 115.6 116.3 116.9 117.8 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 5 4 3 3 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 37 24 20 22 27 23 14 10 7 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 11. 16. 21. 24. 24. 24. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 107.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.36 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.10 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##