* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 42 43 41 40 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 42 43 41 40 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 29 29 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 12 9 8 7 6 6 7 5 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -3 -3 1 -3 -3 -7 -4 -5 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 64 64 67 77 87 109 80 66 122 111 104 96 90 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 155 152 141 134 132 130 131 129 127 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 72 70 65 61 59 57 56 55 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 8 11 9 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 6 5 0 8 22 3 2 -6 1 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 46 40 37 42 63 42 12 -3 0 -16 -10 -31 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 507 495 522 514 484 522 621 736 845 967 1086 1224 1357 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.6 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.8 109.7 110.6 111.6 113.6 115.4 117.0 118.3 119.4 120.7 122.1 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 17 14 12 7 1 1 2 4 6 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 17. 18. 16. 15. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 108.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.5% 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 8.9% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##