* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 34 35 33 32 30 28 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 34 35 33 32 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 11 10 11 7 10 9 9 7 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 62 68 77 82 88 93 82 89 118 91 87 77 82 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 154 149 140 135 132 132 132 130 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 68 65 62 60 56 56 53 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -4 -7 -12 12 6 0 -8 -5 -13 -28 -22 200 MB DIV 39 32 40 58 64 41 10 3 -13 -4 -8 -16 0 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -4 -7 -1 -5 0 -1 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 538 571 583 540 548 606 679 730 790 891 984 1140 1279 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.9 110.8 111.7 112.6 114.3 115.4 116.5 117.3 118.5 119.7 121.5 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 17 18 8 4 3 3 3 4 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 108.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.36 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.9% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##