* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 08/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 32 33 33 31 27 26 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 32 33 33 31 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 21 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 14 12 8 3 3 1 3 6 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 1 -6 -1 -3 -2 -5 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 55 55 58 66 67 81 84 160 106 155 131 152 132 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 152 150 142 134 129 128 124 120 117 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 74 74 67 64 58 55 50 47 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -12 -15 -6 -8 -12 -6 -11 -14 -22 -36 -53 200 MB DIV 27 34 51 48 45 22 23 0 -8 -24 -37 -11 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 497 511 527 472 432 380 423 439 501 557 688 826 940 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.3 20.9 21.3 21.3 21.6 21.5 21.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.4 113.5 114.3 115.4 116.5 118.0 119.8 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 6 6 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 16 11 9 6 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 108.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 08/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.4% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 08/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##