* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 09/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 38 40 38 33 26 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 38 40 38 33 26 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 25 24 23 21 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 12 12 14 12 9 14 19 33 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 91 98 102 106 101 74 106 145 197 209 219 250 241 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.2 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.4 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 154 151 148 145 136 121 115 111 104 100 103 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 71 67 61 53 48 43 38 34 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 11 18 15 21 6 8 -7 -21 -9 -20 -9 200 MB DIV 47 50 68 81 71 17 17 9 17 10 -13 11 -7 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 0 -1 2 5 6 0 -9 -16 LAND (KM) 450 504 567 648 706 730 806 840 881 902 817 707 572 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.3 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.5 108.9 110.2 111.5 114.0 116.0 117.9 119.3 120.3 120.4 119.5 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 10 7 6 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 20 18 17 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 18. 20. 18. 13. 6. -1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.2 106.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 09/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 53.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.7% 9.8% 0.8% 0.4% 10.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 6.4% 4.6% 0.6% 0.2% 3.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 09/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##