* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 09/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 37 38 36 30 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 37 38 36 30 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 23 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 11 9 13 7 11 18 28 34 32 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 -4 -5 -5 -1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 98 101 109 103 81 91 116 174 218 216 225 227 237 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 26.7 25.6 25.1 24.4 23.7 23.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 150 146 143 131 119 113 105 98 96 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 73 69 67 60 54 46 42 36 33 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 1 16 15 20 20 2 -2 -20 -14 -11 -14 8 200 MB DIV 39 64 79 75 39 20 7 10 2 -4 -9 4 -34 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 0 -2 4 7 4 -5 -24 -16 LAND (KM) 502 553 626 712 708 733 795 807 831 785 668 487 304 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.9 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.2 23.2 23.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.4 109.7 111.0 112.3 114.6 116.5 118.2 119.3 119.8 119.3 117.5 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 6 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 24 18 20 18 16 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 18. 16. 10. 2. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 09/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 6.7% 9.7% 0.5% 0.2% 8.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.1% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 09/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##